Methodology

Sources

Component prices, basket weights (relative importance), area indexes and contributions come from the latest BLS CPI news release (Tables A, 1–4, 6 and 7). Monthly index history since 2019 comes from FRED: CPIAUCSL (all items), CPILFESL (core), CPIUFDSL (food), CPIENGSL (energy), CUSR0000SACL1E (core goods) and CUSR0000SAH1 (shelter), all seasonally adjusted.

12-month and monthly views

The 12-month view uses changes from the same month a year earlier, not seasonally adjusted, as BLS headlines them. The monthly view uses seasonally adjusted changes from the previous month. The monthly benchmark is 0.165%, the pace that compounds to 2% over a year.

Contributions

A contribution is how many percentage points an item adds to the headline rate: BLS's "effect on all items" from Tables 6 (monthly) and 7 (12-month) of each release. The Drivers tab marks every row's basis: official means BLS's published figure; estimated (used only if a release table can't be read) means basket weight × price change, scaled so the parts still add to BLS's official total for their group. "Rest of …" and "Other household operations" rows are the part of a group that BLS doesn't break out separately. Shares of inflation are each part's share of the sum of all parts, so they add to 100%; that sum differs from the published headline only by rounding.

Contributions over time and supercore

The history chart is estimated from the FRED indexes. Each group's weight is taken from BLS's latest relative importance and moved back in time by how its price changed relative to the overall index, then multiplied by the group's change. Core services is the remainder, so the groups always add to the headline. BLS re-weights the basket each January, which this simple back-cast doesn't capture, so older months are approximate. The table below compares the method with BLS's official figures for the latest month. Supercore (core services excluding shelter) is built the same way: core services minus shelter, by weight, chained into an index.

Group	This method (pts)	BLS official (pts)	Difference

Rolling rates of change

Annualized rate over k months = (index now ÷ index k months earlier)^12/k − 1, using seasonally adjusted indexes. October 2025 CPI was not collected because of the 2025 lapse in federal appropriations, so any window that starts or ends there is left blank.

Regions

Regional and division figures are BLS area indexes. They aren't seasonally adjusted and come from smaller samples than the national index, so they are noisier. Most metro areas are priced every other month, so their latest figure may be a month older. States are shaded by their census division; BLS doesn't publish state CPIs.

Accuracy

When this page was built (October 2026), every figure was checked against its source: food, energy and core, weighted together, reproduce the headline index within 0.04 points in every month since 2019. The FRED headline series agrees with the BLS unadjusted series within 0.14 points on a 12-month basis.

Glossary

CPI-U

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: the average change in prices paid by urban households (over 90% of the US population) for a fixed basket of goods and services. Published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Headline CPI

The all-items index, including volatile food and energy prices.

Core CPI

All items less food and energy. It strips out the most volatile prices to show the underlying trend.

Supercore

Core services excluding shelter (medical care, transportation services, recreation, education and so on). Watched as a gauge of wage-driven inflation. BLS doesn't publish it directly, so it's estimated here (see Methodology).

Shelter

The cost of housing services: rent, owners' equivalent rent, hotels and home insurance. About a third of the basket.

Owners' equivalent rent (OER)

What homeowners would pay to rent their own home. It measures the cost of housing services, not house prices, and is the largest single item in the CPI.

Relative importance (basket share)

Each item's share of total consumer spending in the CPI, in percent. The shares add to 100.

Contribution / effect

How many percentage points an item adds to the headline rate: roughly its basket share × its price change. BLS calls this the item's 'effect on all items'. Contributions add up to the headline.

Percentage point (pt)

The difference between two percentages. If inflation is 3% and energy contributes 1 point, energy accounts for one of those three points.

Share of inflation

An item's contribution as a percent of the sum of all contributions. It can be far larger than its basket share when its price is rising fast.

12-month change

The change from the same month a year earlier, not seasonally adjusted. The figure usually quoted in the news.

1-month change (m/m)

The change from the previous month, seasonally adjusted (SA) so normal seasonal patterns don't look like inflation.

Seasonally adjusted (SA)

Adjusted to remove regular calendar patterns, such as holiday discounts or summer travel prices. Best for comparing month to month.

Annualized rate

A short-period change scaled up to a yearly pace by compounding: a 0.3% monthly rise is about 3.7% annualized.

Rolling rate of change

The annualized change over the latest 1, 3, 6 or 12 months, recalculated each month. Short windows show turning points earlier but are noisier.

2% target

The Federal Reserve's inflation goal. It is formally defined for the PCE price index, which tends to run a little below CPI, so 2% on CPI is a common benchmark rather than the official test.

Data

Every number on this page cites its source: open Sources to see where a figure comes from or to download a dataset as CSV.

Disclaimer

This is an independent analysis, not an official BLS or Federal Reserve product. Figures marked as estimated are approximations. Nothing here is financial or investment advice. Source data are public domain (BLS) and courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).